31 Dec 2010 - I'd been meaning to post this article on group intelligence but the inertia of Christmas slowed me down. I believe the old adage "Too many chiefs and not enough Indians" has some relevance to this article! Wishing all a fruitful year ahead.
7 Dec 2010 - The NAV for November fell 1.3% to $1084.623.
23 Nov 2010 - World growth looks tepid. Even mighty China seems to be taking a breather. Logically that would cause growth to fall even more. Michael Pettis has an interesting arguement why it may not be so.
9 Nov 2010 - The NAV for October was $1098.800, an increase of 0.7%.
19 Oct 2010 - The 3Q10 report has been posted.
7 Oct 2010 - The NAV for September was $1090.885, up 3.3%
3 Sep 2010 - The NAV for August was $1055.706, down 1.3%
4 Aug 2010 - The NAV for July was $1069.586, an increase of 1.3%
31 Jul 2010 - The 2Q10 report has been posted.
12 Jul 2010 - The NAV rose 4.2%, in June, to $1055.441.
Andy Grove has written an interesting article on saving American jobs. Outsourcing has been a great way for corporations to focus on their core competencies i.e. design, branding etc. It has also been a great boon for profit margins as economies of scale gained, are shared. The short and mid term benefits are quite apparent to most, but longer term I've always had some misgivings about outsourcing. Specializing of tasks brings immediate economic benefits but in the long run, I'm not convinced that such "higher value added" skills can be gained or retained without being immersed in the entire ecosystem. More on this in the 1H newsletter.
2 Jun 2010 - The NAV fell 6.2%, in May, to $1012.658.
6 May 2010 - The NAV for Apr 2010 was $1079.737, an increase of 2.4% from March.
18 Apr 2010 - The 1Q10 report has been posted.
6 Apr 2010 - The NAV for Mar 2010 was $1054.263, an increase of 3.2% from the previous month.
Michael Burry wrote an oped in the New York Times detailing the trade which made his reputation. I agree with him. It really did not have to be this way, and now future generations will pay the price. Hindsight is 20/20 but I recall several noted investors and analysts were voicing misgivings about the unnaturally low interest rates and absurd loans as early as 2004. This was most certainly not an "unknown unknown".
8 Mar 2010 - The NAV for Feb 2010 was $1021.194, up 0.7% from January.
25 Feb 2010 - Charlie Munger recently wrote a commentary on Slate. It's titled "Basically It's Over: A parable about how one nation came to financial ruin.". It's pretty obvious which country he's referring to. A very sobering reminder that things have not been fixed and the eventual consequences of not doing so. This parable reminds me of the The Great Financial Scandal of 2003 which he wrote in 2001 . His prediction was startlingly true. We can only hope it doesn't pan out in this instance.
Peter Boone and Simon Johnson are just as gloomy in this article titled The Doomsday Cycle.
5 Feb 2010 - The NAV for Jan 2010 was $1013.732, down 0.4% from the previous month.
14 Jan 2010 - The year end NAV was 1017.895. Monthly NAV figures can be found here.